COMMODITY DAILY UPDATE
27 February 2024, 08:28
Gold -

Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)



Tenken-Sen- $2033.27



Kijun-Sen- $2028.76



Gold trades flat ahead of US durable goods orders. New home sales rose 1.5% m/m in Jan to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 661000 compared to a forecast of 680000. The yellow metal hit a high of $2034.60 at the time of writing and is currently trading around $2033.43.





According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in Mar increased to 99.50% from 90% a week ago.



US dollar index- Bearish. Minor support around 103.40/102.70. The near-term resistance is 104.20/105.



Factors to watch for gold price action-



Global stock market- Bullish (negative for gold)



US dollar index - Bearish (Bullish for gold)



US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)



Technical:



The near–term support is around $2020, a break below targets of $2010/$2000/$1970/$1956/$1930. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2042 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2060/$2070/$2080/$2100.



It is good to buy on dips around $2000 with SL around $1970 for TP of $2065/$2080.



Silver-



Silver pared most of its gains despite the weak US dollar. The strong US economic data and hawkish Fed officials are adding pressure to precious metals at higher levels. It trades above 21, 55- EMA, and 200 EMA in the 4-hour chart. The near-term resistance is around $23 and a break above confirms an intraday bullishness. A jump to $23.60/$24 is possible. Any violation below $22.50 targets $21.90/$21.40/$20.68.





Crude oil-



WTI crude oil gained more than $2 from yesterday's low of $75.81. The supply disruptions are due to ongoing strikes in the Red Sea. Any jump above $80 confirms a further bullishness.



Major resistance- $78.90/$80. Significant support- $75.70/$74.

Daily Market Overview

Israel and Hamas are close to negotiations. Bank of America believes that it is not yet time to sell the dollar
Crude oil and gasoline prices fell on Friday on concerns about energy demand in China. According to RBC Capital Markets, China's domestic oil demand has been weak, and limited stimulus measures from the government have disappointed. Oil was also pressured by signs that Israel will join peace talks in Paris, which could reduce some geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

On Friday, the US dollar index posted its first weekly decline in 2024 as investors took a break from buying the currency after a nearly two-month rally built on expectations that the Federal Reserve would begin cutting rates later than previously thought. Investors shifted expectations for the Fed's first rate cut to June rather than May, significantly reducing the extent of prime rate cuts by the US Central Bank. But, if the US economy remains as strong as it is, the Fed may not be able to go for a rate cut in June.

Latest changes in the stock market:

🔼 Dow Jones Index (US3 up by 0.16%;
🔼 S&P 500 Index (US50 up by 0.04%;
🔽 NASDAQ Technology Index (US10 down by 0.28%;
🔼 German DAX (DE4 up by 0.28%;
🔼 French CAC 40 (FR4 up by 0.70%;
🔽 Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) down by 0.08%;
🔼 British FTSE 100 (UK10 up by 0.28%.

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USD/CAD: THE INSTRUMENT CONTINUES THE “BULLISH” MOMENTUM FORMED LAST FRIDAY
26 February 2024, 09:52


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.3550
Take Profit 1.3650
Stop Loss 1.3500
Key Levels 1.3350, 1.3400, 1.3450, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3600, 1.3650, 1.3700
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.3500
Take Profit 1.3400
Stop Loss 1.3550
Key Levels 1.3350, 1.3400, 1.3450, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3600, 1.3650, 1.3700
Current trend

During the Asian session, the USD/CAD pair moderately develops the “bullish” momentum formed on Friday and tests the level of 1.3500 for a breakout, while trading participants expect the emergence of new drivers.

Today, investors will focus on statistics from the real estate market: in December, sales of new homes increased by 8.0% to 0.664M, and January forecasts suggest a more muted growth to 0.680M. On Tuesday, data on US consumer confidence for February and durable goods orders: according to preliminary estimates, the figure excluding transport in January will be adjusted from 0.5% to 0.2%. On Wednesday, Q4 personal consumption expenditures statistics will be published, thanks to which US Federal Reserve officials will be able to assess the pace of decline in inflation pressure within the country: previously, the index increased by 1.7% QoQ.

On Thursday, analysts will estimate the dynamics of Canada’s Q4 gross domestic product (GDP): forecasts suggest growth of the national economy by 0.8% YoY after a decline of 1.1% earlier, and by the end of December, as before, the figure will increase by about 0.2%.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are moving flat: the price range remains virtually unchanged, remaining quite spacious for the current market activity level. The MACD indicator is trying to reverse upwards and generate a buy signal (the histogram tends to be above the signal line). Stochastic shows more active “bullish” dynamics but is quickly approaching its highs, which indicates that the instrument may become overbought soon.

Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3600, 1.3650, 1.3700.

Support levels: 1.3500, 1.3450, 1.3400, 1.3350.





Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after a breakout of 1.3550 with the target at 1.3650. Stop loss – 1.3500. Implementation time: 2–3 days.

Short positions may be opened after a rebound from 1.3550 and a breakdown of 1.3500 with the target at 1.3400. Stop loss – 1.3550.

FXWIREPRO: FOREX DAILY UPDATE
26 February 2024, 06:53
The US dollar index extended its bearish trend from a minor top of 104.97 due to upbeat market sentiment. The US index, especially the NASDAQ, hit an all-time high and gained momentum after upbeat earnings from NVIDIA.



The hawkish FOMC meeting minutes and strong US flash manufacturing PMI support the US dollar index at a lower level. It hit a low of 103.43 and is currently trading around 1033.97.



According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in Mar increased to 97.50% from 90% a week ago.





The US 10-year yields declined more than 3% from a multi-month high of 4.35%. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -38.3% from -53%.



Major resistance- 104.25/105



Major support- 103/102.





EURUSD-



EURUSD pared some of its gains after the ECB speakers' dovish comments. ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno told Bloomberg News in an interview that the central bank should go for an early rate cut in March.



German Ifo business climate rose to 85.50 in Feb from 85.2 the previous month.



Major resistance-1.0880,1.0935



Major support- 1.0760,1.0700



Yen-



The pair showed a minor sell-off as US yields declined. Any break below 149.50 confirms minor weakness.



Major Resistance- 151,152



Major support- 148,146.50



Canadian Dollar



The pair holds above 1.3500 on easing crude oil prices. The policy divergence between the US Fed and BOC also supports the pair at lower levels.



Resistance- 1.3550,1.3600



Major support- 1.3435,1.3380

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GOLD MORNING MARKET REVIEW

XAU/USD

Gold prices are recovering after a systematic decline at the beginning of the week, when quotes returned to local lows from July 10. At the moment, the XAU/USD pair is testing 1930.00, receiving support from Chinese macroeconomic statistics: an increase in the Consumer Price Index by 0.2% was recorded in July after reducing by the same amount last month, although analysts' forecasts suggested a decrease by 0.1%, and in annual terms there was a correction of -0.3%, which is only 0.1% better than market forecasts. The day before, investors, on the contrary, were disappointed by weak statistics from China on the dynamics of Exports and Imports. Exports in July fell by 14.5% year on year after -12.4% last month, although analysts expected a value of -12.5%, while Imports lost 12.4% after falling by 6.8% earlier: the real dynamics turned out to be worse than forecasts by more than two times.

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