US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Is this a turnaround?

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is forming a bearish pattern which often preceds a substantial correction in prices. For a third day in a row, lower highs and lower lows are being printed on the daily chart. This points to relentless selling and builds up pressure for more downside, which can only be halted by strong pivotal support levels.

On the upside, 105.88 (a pivotal level since March 2023) needs to be recovered again before targeting the April 16 high at 106.52. Further up and above the 107.00 round level, the DXY index could meet resistance at 107.35, the October 3 high.

On the downside, 105.12 and 104.60 should act as support ahead of the 55-day and the 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 104.37 and 104.07, respectively. If those levels are unable to hold, the 100-day SMA near 103.70 is the next best candidate.


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US Q1 GDP Preview: Economic growth set to remain firm, albeit easing from Q4

Techs on the US Dollar Index (DXY)

Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “In case the bullish sentiment gathers steam, the USD Index (DXY) could confront the so-far 2024 top at 106.51 (April 16). Surpassing this level could encourage market participants to embark on a potential visit to the November peak at 107.11 (November 1), just ahead of the 2023 high at 107.34 (October 3).”

Pablo adds: “If we look in the opposite direction, the April bottom at 103.88 (April 9) remains underpinned by the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 103.99, and this area is expected to offer decent contention. The breakdown of this region exposes a drop to the 100-day SMA at 103.67 prior to the March low at 102.35 (March 8).”

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Technical Analysis: Gold price bears need to wait for acceptance below $2,300 before placing fresh bets

From a technical perspective, the Gold price now seems to have found acceptance below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the February-April rally, albeit showing some resilience below the $2,300 mark earlier this week. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart – though have been losing traction – are still holding in the positive territory. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the $2,300-2,290 area, or over a two-week low touched on Tuesday, before positioning for an extension of the recent pullback from the all-time peak. The subsequent downfall has the potential to drag the XAU/USD to the $2,260-2,255 area, or the 38.2% Fibo. level, en route to the $2,225 intermediate support and the $2,200-2,190 confluence, comprising the 50% Fibo. level and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

On the flip side, immediate resistance is pegged near the $2,325 area ahead of the overnight swing high, the $2,337-2,338 zone. A sustained move beyond could allow the Gold price to test the next relevant hurdle near the $2,350-2,355 region and climb further towards the $2,380 supply zone. This is closely followed by the $2,400 round figure and the all-time peak, near the $2,431-2,432 area, which if cleared will set the stage for an extension of the recent blowout rally witnessed over the past two months or so.

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GBP/CHF Forex Signal: Stable Against Franc

Technical Analysis
The pair does look very bullish, and the 1.13 level underneath is going to continue to be important. It’s an area that we’ve seen a little bit of action at previously, but we also have the 50-Day EMA approaching that region a little bit of a bounce from there does make quite a bit of sense, due to the fact that you get paid at the end of every day to hold this currency pair. Furthermore, it’s possible that the Swiss National Bank may continue to cut rates, and if that’s going to be the case, the Swiss franc becomes a massive funding currency for currency traders.

On the upside, we have the 1.15 level above offering a significant amount of resistance, and I think we simply bounce back and forth in this area as we continue to build up the necessary momentum eventually to perhaps break out. If we can break above the 1.15 level, then it is likely that we could go higher, perhaps reaching as high as 1.20 over the longer term.

On the other hand, if we were to break down below the 50-Day EMA, then it’s possible that the market could go down to the 200-Day EMA, which sits right around the 1.1150 level. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of volatility, but I still favor the upside as the swap at the end of the day continues to be a major feature of this pair.

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Gold Prices Forecast
Gold is currently priced at $2,376.15, showing a rise of 0.63%. The metal is trading above its pivot point at $2,363.79, suggesting bullish momentum. Resistance is observed at $2,403.98, with further hurdles at $2,431.98 and $2,459.86. Conversely, support levels are marked at $2,323.92, followed by $2,296.85 and $2,268.55.

Technical indicators underscore the upward trajectory. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,352.85 and the 200-day EMA at $2,243.40 both support the ongoing bullish trend. The formation of bullish candles above the 50 EMA and along the upward trendline further confirms the buying trend.

Conclusion: Gold remains in a bullish phase above $2,363.79. However, any movement below this critical threshold could prompt a sharp sell-off, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment.


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