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• The Market Perspective: USDJPY Bullish Above 141; EURUSD Bullish Above 1.0000; Gold Bearish Below 1,750
• The market’s opened to some modest volatility thanks to focus on Chinese protests over covid lockdowns, but the SP 500 still hasn’t left its narrow range
• Monetary policy speculation will ramp up starting today with the US and Europe facing the most fundamental fodder…making for an interesting backdrop for EURUSD

  After the kind of activity that we were faced with through the end of last week with the Thanksgiving holiday drain, any modest pick up in volatility would be highlighted. That’s what we saw this past session as the SP 500 gapped modestly lower on the open and proceeded to stretch its overall losses on the session to -1.5 percent. That increases the tally of one percent or greater declines on a daily session to once again match the bearish progress of 2008. There was also a fundamental beacon for market participants to gather around and justify the downshift: the growing protests in major Chinese cities over crushing covid lockdowns. However, despite the clear narrative and significant-enough market movement, the SP 500 would still not leave the comfort of the range it has scoped over the past 10 trading days (equivalent to two weeks). At this point, the 11-day historical range as a percentage of spot is equivalent to 3.2 percent – the smallest trading span since November 24th of last year. The average true range (a measure of realized volatility) is the lowest since January of this year. In other words, we have yet to break the volatility and liquidity seal.

   

  Chart of the SP 500 with 100 and 200-Day SMAs and 1-Day Historical Range (Daily)

   

  

  Chart Created on Tra