EUR/USD Latest: Polling Data Places Marine Le Pen’s Party in Top Spot

EUR/USD: SOFTER DOLLAR MAY LIMIT DOWNSIDE RISKS FOR NOW
EUR/USD appears to have stabilised above the 1.0700 mark for the time being. Markets have a tendency to get nervous when political uncertainty presents itself, but polls have all been pointing to the same result for some time now – a fractured parliament with Marine Le Pen’s party likely to receive the majority of the vote but falling short of attaining a majority in parliament.

Despite the recent consolidation, EUR/USD trades below the 200 SMA with the lower bound of the pair’s broad range coming in at 1.0643 and the April swing low at 1.0600 flat. US GDP data and PCE on Friday are notable events on the calendar, with PCE carrying considerable more weight as it could validate the encouraging CPI data seen recently in the US (potentially bearish for the dollar).

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EUR/USD Daily Chart

Gold (XAU/USD) Retail Sentiment Analysis Update

GOLD (XAU/USD) LATEST:
Recent IG retail trader data reveals a significant bullish sentiment towards gold, with 63.96% of traders holding net-long positions. The long-to-short ratio is 1.77 to 1, indicating a clear preference for long positions. However, this overwhelming bullish sentiment may paradoxically signal potential downward pressure on gold prices.

Compared to yesterday, net-long traders have increased by 2.36%, while net-short positions have decreased slightly by 0.47%. The weekly trend is even more pronounced, with net-long positions up 11.72% and net-short positions down 18.12%.

Given our contrarian approach to market sentiment, this data suggests gold prices may continue to decline. The combination of current positioning and recent shifts strengthens our bearish outlook on gold.

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Gold Daily Price Chart

Gold – Price Action Analysis and Technical Outlook

GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold (XAU/USD) dropped on Monday following an unsuccessful endeavor to take out trendline resistance at $2,375 on Friday, with prices slipping back below the $2,350 mark at the start of the new week. Should losses intensify in the days ahead, a potential support zone emerges near May’s low and the 50-day simple moving average around $2,280. Below this area, attention will shift to $2,260.

On the flip side, if bulls regain decisive control of the market and propel prices higher, the first technical hurdle to keep an eye on appears at $2,350, followed by the dynamic trendline discussed earlier, now crossing $2,365. Further upward movement past this point could strengthen buying momentum, laying the groundwork for a rally towards $2,420 and possibly even $2,430.

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GOLD PRICE TECHNICAL CHART

Gold Sell Now @ 2168.50-2171.50

Sl : 2177.50

TP1 : 2165.50
TP2 : 2162.50
TP3 : 2158.78

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Technical analysis: Gold buyers take a breather below $2,170.00

Gold price remains upwardly biased on Thursday, but it has consolidated near the $2,160-$2,180 area during the last three days, unable to break the top of the range and aim toward $2,200.00. It should be said that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is about to pierce below the 70 mark, an indication that buyers are losing momentum. In that event, XAU/US could dive toward $2,150.00.

Further downside is seen at the March 6 low of $2,123.80, followed by $2,100.00. A breach of the latter will expose the December 28 high at $2,088.48 and the February 1 high at $2,065.60.

On the other hand, a bullish continuation would happen once buyers reclaim the March 12 high of $2,184.76. The next stop would be the year-to-date high of $2,195.15, followed by $2,200.00.

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