USD/JPY extends upside to 155.00 amid caution ahead of US data, BoJ policy
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The USD/JPY pair advances to historic highs of 155.00 in Wednesday’s London session. The asset strengthens as the US Dollar finds support amid uncertainty ahead of the United States Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for March, which will be published on Thursday and Friday.

The economic data will significantly influence market expectations about when the Fed will start reducing interest rates.

The market sentiment is asset-specific as S&P 500 futures have added some gains in the European session, while risk-perceived currencies drop against the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) adds some gains after discovering buying interest near 105.70.

On Tuesday, the US Dollar corrected sharply after the S&P Global reported a weak US preliminary PMI report for April. The agency reported that the Manufacturing PMI remains below the 50.0 threshold that indicates a contraction and the Services PMI falls sharply. This has suggested that strong US economic outlook is losing some heat.

In today’s session, investors will keenly watch the Durable Goods Orders for March. Orders for Durable Goods rose by 1.4% in February. Durable Goods Orders include those products that have life span of three years or more. Strong Durable Goods Orders indicate a stubborn inflation outlook.

Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen weakens as investors expect that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will not continue raising interest rates this week. Last time, the BoJ pushed interest rates to 0%-0.1% after maintaining a super easy monetary policy for 17 years. A Reuters poll showed that the BoJ will tighten policy further once this year and is expected to keep it stable till the June meeting.

Fears of Japan’s intervention in the FX domain to support the sliding Japanese Yen deepen. In the early European session Senior Japan Ruling Party Executive Ochi said, "There is no broad consensus right now, but if the yen slides further toward 160 or 170 to the dollar, that may be deemed excessive and could prompt policymakers to consider some action" Reuters reported.


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Technical Analysis: EUR/USD pierces top of short-term range
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EUR/USD breaks out of the box-like range it had been trading in for the last seven days and pierces above the key 1.0700 level to bring into doubt the durability of the short-term downtrend.

It is now less certain EUR/USD is forming a Bear Flag price pattern as had previously been assumed. The pattern has quite bearish connotations with a potential downside target in the 1.0400s, so if it fails to activate the pair could reverse on the disappointment, with some short-covering adding fuel to the recovery.


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USD/CAD sticks to modest recovery gains, remains below 1.3700 ahead of US data
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The USD/CAD pair attracts some buyers in the vicinity of mid-1.3600s, or a two-week low touched earlier this Wednesday and for now, seems to have snapped a five-day losing streak. Spot prices stick to modest intraday gains through the first half of the European session and currently trade near the 1.3675-1.3680 region or the top end of the daily range.

Crude Oil prices struggle to capitalize on the previous day's goodish rebound from the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support amid easing geopolitical tensions and concerns about slowing economic growth in China. This, along with expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will cut interest rates in the summer amid declining inflation and slower economic growth, is seen undermining the commodity-linked Loonie and acting as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair amid the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) dip-buying.

Investors now seem convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is unlikely to begin cutting interest rates before September and have also scaled back their expectations about the number of rate cuts in 2024 to two amid still sticky inflation. The hawkish outlook, meanwhile, remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and helps revive the USD demand. That said, a generally positive risk tone might hold back traders from placing fresh bullish bets around the safe-haven buck and act as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair.

Investors might also prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of this week's important US macro data, starting with Durable Goods Orders later during the North American session. Apart from this, the Advance US Q1 GDP report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Thursday and Friday, respectively, might provide fresh cues about the Fed's rate cut path. This, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and help determine the next leg of a directional move for the USD/CAD pair.


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Technical Analysis: Gold price bears might wait for sustained break below $2,300 mark before positioning for deeper losses
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From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD showed some resilience below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the February-April rally. The subsequent bounce, along with the fact that oscillators on the daily chart are still holding in the positive territory, warrants some caution for bearish traders. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for acceptance below the $2,300 mark before positioning for deeper losses. The Gold price might then slide to the $2,260-2,255 area, or the 38.2% Fibo. level, en route to the $2,225 intermediate support and the $2,200-2,190 confluence, comprising the 50% Fibo. level and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

On the flip side, any further move up is more likely to confront stiff resistance and remain capped near the $2,350-2,355 region. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the $2,380 supply zone, which is followed by the $2,400 mark and the all-time peak, near the $2,431-2,432 area. A sustained strength beyond the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and set the stage for an extension of the recent blowout rally witnessed over the past two months or so.


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EUR/JPY sets to capture 166.00 on Japanese Yen’s persistent underperformance
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The EUR/JPY pair aims to extend its upside to 166.00 due to persistent weakness in the Japanese Yen. The cross consolidates near multi-year highs but is expected to rise further as investors expect that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will struggle to tighten its monetary policy further due to absence of significant wage growth spiral.

Apart from that, Japan has raised bar for USD/JPY where the administration could do a stealth intervention has also weighed on the Japanese Yen. In Wednesday’s early European session, Senior Japan Ruling Party Executive Ochi said, "There is no broad consensus right now, but if the yen slides further toward 160 or 170 to the dollar, that may be deemed excessive and could prompt policymakers to consider some action" Reuters reported.

Earlier, investors were speculating that Japan will intervene in the FX domain when the Japanese Yen will drop to 155.00 against the US Dollar. But now higher targets for the major have exposed the Japanese Yen to more downside.

Going forward, investors will focus on the BoJ’s interest rate decision, which will be announced on Friday. A Reuters poll in the April 11-17 period showed that none of the economists have predicted a rate hike move before June. The survey also showed that economists are anticipating that the BoJ will raise interest rates one more time. The survey lacks clear consensus on when exactly the move would come.

Meanwhile, the Euro performs relatively weaker against other currencies as the European Central Bank (EC is widely anticipated to cut interest rates in the June meeting. ECB policymaker Villeroy de Galhau said last week that they could cut rates in the next meeting, barring a major surprise. Villeroy emphasized on returning to structural transformation as inflation is receding.

Also, ECB Joachim Nagel said in Wednesday’s European session that a June interest rate cut may not be necessarily followed up by a series of rate cuts. The statement clearly indicates that he is comfortable with a rate cut move in June.


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