Oil Technical Analysis: More downside in case more easing talks get underway
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Oil prices are easing on Monday after markets scale back the risk premium in Oil that got priced in ahead of the weekend. With investors applauding the deescalation, a test towards $83.34 (purple line) is key. In case that line snaps, expect to see further falls towards $80 as more risk premium is priced out.

In case tensions escalate again and last week’s high at $87.12 gets broken, the $90 handle should come into grasp. One small barrier in the way is $89.64, the peak from October 20. In case of further escalating tensions in the Middle East, expect even $94 to become a possibility, and a fresh 18-month high could be on the cards.

On the downside, $83.34 is the first level to have a look for after a very clean break and test for support on April 1 and 2. Should it not hold, $80.63 is the next best candidate as a pivotal supportive level. A touch softer, the convergence with the 55-day and the 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at $79.32 should halt any further downturn.


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US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Correcting a touch
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The US Dollar Index (DXY) is easing on Monday ahead of the US Retail Sales numbers. The main driver for the retracement comes after Iran issued a statement this Monday saying that it does not want to seek any escalation in the Middle East. Markets are sending European and US equities higher, while safe-haven currencies are easing a touch, with the DXY Index retreating below 106.00.

On the upside, the first level for the DXY is the November 10 high at 106.01, just above the 106.00 figure. Further up and above the 107.00 round level, the DXY Index could meet resistance at 107.35, the October 3 high.

On the downside, the first important level is 105.88, a pivotal level since March 2023. Further down, 105.12 and 104.60 should also act as a support, ahead of the region with both the 55-day and the 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 103.97 and 103.84, respectively.


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USD/CAD Price Analysis: Corrects to 1.3730 ahead of US Retail Sales data
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The USD/CAD pair drops to 1.3730 in Monday’s European session. The Loonie asset falls while the US Dollar consolidates in a tight range, indicating some strength in the Canadian Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades sideways in a range near a six-month high around 106.00.

The near-term demand for the Loonie asset remains strong as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to keep interest rates restrictive for a longer period. Fed policymakers see no urgency for rate cuts as the consumer price inflation is persistently higher.

Meanwhile, investors await the United States Retail Sales data for March, which will impact speculation for Fed rate cuts. The monthly Retail Sales are estimated to have grown at a slower pace of 0.3% against the prior reading of 0.6%. An upbeat Retail Sales data will strengthen the inflation outlook that could negatively influence market expectations to Fed rate cuts, which are currently anticipated in the September meeting.

Going forward, the Canadian Dollar will dance to the tunes of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be published on Tuesday. The inflation data will provide cues about when the Bank of Canada (BoC) could begin reducing interest rates.

USD/CAD delivers a stalwart rally after a breakout of the Ascending Triangle chart pattern formed on a daily timeframe. An ascending triangle formation demonstrates a sharp volatility contraction that exhibits small ticks and low volume. While a breakout in the same results in wider ticks towards the upside and heavy buying volume.

Upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3610 indicates more upside ahead.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifts into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, signalling a bullish momentum has been triggered.

The Loonie asset would observe a fresh upside if it breaks above April 12 high at 1.3787. This will drive the asset towards November 4 high at 1.3844, followed by November high at 1.900.

On the contrary, a downside move below April 9 low at 1.3547 would expose the asset to the psychological support of 1.3500. A breakdown below the latter would extend downside towards February 22 low at 1.3441.


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EUR/GBP remains below 0.8550 amid improved Eurozone manufacturing figures
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EUR/GBP moves downward to near 0.8540 during the European trading hours on Monday. The Euro (EUR) failed to react to the improved data from the Eurozone’s manufacturing sector. The seasonally adjusted Industrial Production increased by 0.8% MoM in February, swinging from the previous decline of 3.0%. The annual index reduced by 6.4% for the said period, lower than the previous decrease of 6.6%.

The EUR encountered struggles against the GBP following the European Central Bank's (EC indication that there might be a consideration to lower policy rates in June if underlying inflation continues to decelerate as anticipated.

According to Reuters, Gediminas Šimkus, a member of the ECB Governing Council, suggested on Monday above 50% probability of witnessing more than three rate cuts throughout the year.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) appreciates on adjusting market forecasts for interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE). The policy rate is now expected to decline to around 4.75% by the end of 2024, down from the current rate of 5.25%. This marks a shift from the previous expectation of a drop to 4.5% by December.

Additionally, the hawkish remarks from BoE’s policymaker, Megan Greene have supported the British Pound (GBP), which might have contributed to pressure on the EUR/GBP cross. She emphasized that rate cuts in the United Kingdom (UK) should still be considered distant, pointing to a greater risk of persistent inflation in the country.

Traders will likely pay close attention to the speech by Sarah Breeden, BoE's Deputy Governor for Financial Stability, at the Innovate Finance Global Summit 2024 on Monday.


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Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
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Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $28.24 per troy ounce, up 1.29% from the $27.88 it cost on Friday.

Silver prices have increased by 10.88% since the beginning of the year.

Unit measure Today Price
Silver price per troy ounce $28.24
Silver price per gram $0.91


The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of troy ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one troy ounce of Gold, stood at 83.14 on Monday, down from 84.09 on Friday.

Investors might use this ratio to determine the relative valuation of Gold and Silver. Some may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued – or Gold is overvalued – and might buy Silver or sell Gold accordingly. Conversely, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.


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